Then in Q1 2020, while still struggling to slow down the structural decline stemming from the crackdown on capital flight, Macau’s gambling revenues and therefore the entire economy got hit by the travel restrictions and the shutdown of casinos. GDP collapsed to 54.4 billion pataca. House always wins: the dark side of life in Macau’s casino economy The Chinese city is one of the world’s richest but the lowest-paid 10% struggle. Gambling in Macau, which was legalized in the 1850s, makes up a large portion of the region’s economy. Revenue from gaming and gambling there exceeded 29 billion U.S. Dollars in 2019.
In brief
The recession in Macau will deepen owing to the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, which has severely affected tourist arrivals and gambling expenditure. As a result, we expect real GDP to fall by over 60% on annual average in 2020, with only a marginal recovery setting in by 2021. The crisis will derail longer-term plans for economic diversification, although the authorities' effective handling of the pandemic from a healthcare perspective will constrain any potential eruption of social unrest.
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Economic growth
Economic growth| (% unless otherwise indicated) |
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|
| US GDP | -4.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
|---|
| OECD GDP | -6.1 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
|---|
| World GDP | -5.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 |
|---|
| World trade | -11.6 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
|---|
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
Inflation indicators| (% unless otherwise indicated) |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|
| US CPI | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
|---|
| OECD CPI | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
|---|
| Manufactures (measured in US$) | 4.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
|---|
| Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 60.0 | 57.0 | 51.0 |
|---|
| Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | -4.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
|---|
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
Forecast updates
Macau Gambling Economy Definition
Economy | November 20th 2020Weak price pressures highlight severe issues with domestic consumption, which we expect to persist into 2021.
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Growth in house prices has remained stable, despite the economic disruption wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.
Macau Gambling Economy History
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Politics | November 9th 2020Macau Gambling Economy Trade
Reluctance to join the CPTPP will act as a cap on US influence in the region.
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Macau Gambling Economy International
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Macau Gambling
Financial variables| (% unless otherwise indicated) |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|
| US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
|---|
| ¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
|---|
| ¥:US$ (av) | 107.4 | 108.3 | 109.9 |
|---|
| Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.96 | 7.00 | 6.71 |
|---|
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |